February 3, 2020

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The USD should remain under pressure until late Q3, perhaps even into Spring next year

• The EUR/USD exchange rates may have plugged a secular low in March on our long term bi-monthly graph. At least, the configuration suggests a continuation of the current bounce into early next year. These dynamics are similar to other anti-USD trades such as cyclical assets, Commodities or Emerging Markets.

 

• Shorter term, we expect further upside into late September / early October, possibly up to 1.22, then 4 to 7 figures of correction into mid/late Q4, and finally a further leg up into next Spring, potentially towards the high 1.20s. Other anti-USD trades should follow similar dynamics

 

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