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MARKET TIMING SINCE 1969

September 1, 2019

Market tops are usually marked by Euphoria and “this time is different” type of assertations. To be fair, for now, this year has seen none of the above. Many equity markets did make new...

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Late last month we argued that risk assets were ripe for a correction, that the breadth of the rally was fading, and that bellwether indicators such as USD/JPY or the Copper to Gold ratio were starting to top out. We then expected some...

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Since rates bottomed in mid-2016, the Dollar has been pro-cyclical. This was especially true during H2 2016, and during most of 2018. Both periods saw the US Growth differential vs the rest of...

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During March, an ultra-Dovish FED sent yields spiraling lower, and while equities distributed at high levels, Treasuries were indeed the best performing asset class. Inflation expectations also...

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Since US long term yields started to correct down last October, the US Dollar has stalled. US long term yields are more volatile than....

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February 1, 2019

While Defensive Assets such as Gold and Treasuries are breaking out to the upside, since Christmas Eve, Equities have also been rebounding strongly. These cross-asset moves may represent a bit...

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November 1, 2018

With the recent market correction, BlackRock, the world’s largest ETF provider and a bellwether for passive investment has broken through support.

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Last month we suggested that by late September, risk assets should move lower into November. We believe this is still the case, and that the strong rallies we recently saw on some equity markets (in Europe especially) could start to...

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September 3, 2018

We note that currently one graph stands out as a very precise indicator of risk-on and risk-off dynamics. Indeed, after having been bid up since mid last year, the yield spread between 3-years and 3-months Treasuries topped out in May and may be...

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In our early June contribution, we warned of turning to negative too quickly.  At the time, we expected a rally between mid June and late July/early August.  We confirmed this view in our luncheon presentation to the GSCGI on the 22th June.  That said, we believe ...
 

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